Economic Analyses of Sea-Level Rise Adaptation Strategies for Decision Making: A Case Study of Hillsborough County, Florida

摘要

This work reports the impacts of economic analysis results on sea-level rise adaptationdecision making with different economic analysis methods. The methodology was applied toHillsborough County, Florida. Based on the sea-level rise projection data, light detection andraging (LiDAR) data, parcel land use data, property data, and transportation data, we firstreport the impacts of potential sea-level rise on land use, property, and transportationinfrastructure in 2060. With the impact analysis results, four adaptation strategies areproposed. Four economic analysis methods considering direct, both direct and indirectimpacts, and spatial autocorrelation impact are used to evaluate the economic costs andbenefits as well as the cost effectiveness of the adaptation strategies. A general conclusiondrawn from this research is that partial shoreline protection should be implemented to reducethe potential impacts of sea-level rise on important land use, then critical infrastructure ispreferred to be protected or accommodated, and finally managed relocation should beadopted. More specifically, the results show that the best adaptation strategy is shorelineprotection plus transportation infrastructure accommodation; the length of shorelineprotection plays an important role in the economic analysis results, and shoreline protectionand accommodation adaptation strategies for all areas are not recommended because of eitherhigh costs or low benefits; the value of travel time saving and spatial autocorrelation playimportant roles in the economic analysis results of accommodation strategy, which highlightsthe importance of including indirect economic factors and spatial autocorrelation impactswhen making sea-level rise adaptation decisions.