CONDUCTING ACQUISITION PATH ANALYSIS FOR DEVELOPING A STATE-LEVEL SAFEGUARDS APPROACH

摘要

The objective of acquisition path analysis is to identify and assess all plausible routes by which a State could, from a technical point of view, acquire nuclear material for the development of a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device. Each acquisition path consists of a series of acquisition path steps that could include the diversion of nuclear material from declared nuclear facilities in the State, misuse of declared facilities to process and produce undeclared nuclear material, and the possible existence in the State of undeclared nuclear material, facilities and activities. Acquisition path analysis includes the consideration of a State's nuclear fuel cycle related capabilities and experience, as well as additional capabilities and expertise that would be required by the State; it is therefore a key aspect in the evaluation of all safeguards relevant information about a State. The implementation of safeguards by the International Atomic Energy Agency ('IAEA') will be based on a customized State-level safeguards approach developed for each State. In addition to its use for State evaluation, acquisition path analysis also provides the basis for the development of an effective State-level approach for States with comprehensive safeguards agreements in force. In order to ensure comprehensive and consistent analysis for the development of State-level approaches, additional internal guidance on acquisition path analysis has been prepared by the IAEA. This paper gives an overview of the acquisition path analysis process, including how to identify and assess paths, and how the results of the analysis can be used in the development of a State-level safeguards approach.