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The impact of heatwaves on mortality in Australia: a multi-city study

机译:热浪对澳大利亚死亡率的影响:一项多城市研究

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Background: It is important to quantify the health impact of heatwaves. However, little is known about the geographic difference of the heatwave - mortality relationship in the southern hemisphere. This study assessed the impact of heatwave on mortality in three major Australian cities: Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. Methods: Daily data on climatic variables and mortality for these three cities during the period 1988 to 2009 were obtained from relevant government agencies. A consistent definition of a heatwave was used for these cities. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were fitted to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality after adjustment for confounders. Results: Total mortality increased mostly within the same day (lag 0) or a lag of one day (lag 1) during almost all heatwaves in three cities. Using the 95 percentile of mean temperature for two or more consecutive days in the summer season as a consistent heatwave definition (HWD) across different cities, the relative risk for total mortality at lag 1 in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney was 1.13 (95% confidence interval (CI: 1.08 -1.19), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06 -1.14) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01 -1.10), respectively. Using the more stringent HWD, i.e. the 99 percentile of mean temperature for two or more consecutive days in the summer season, the relative risk of total mortality at the lags of 0-2 days in Brisbane and Melbourne was 1.40 (95% CI: 1.29 -1.51) and 1.47 (95% CI: 1.36 - 1.59), respectively, indicating significant increases in mortality risk. Elderly, particularly females, were more vulnerable to the impact of heatwaves. Conclusions: A consistent and significant increase in mortality was observed during heatwaves in three major Australian cities, but the impacts of heatwave varied with age, gender, the HWD and geographic area.
机译:背景:量化热浪对健康的影响很重要。然而,关于南半球热浪的地理差异与死亡率关系知之甚少。这项研究评估了热浪对澳大利亚三个主要城市:布里斯班,墨尔本和悉尼的死亡率的影响。方法:从相关政府机构获得1988年至2009年这三个城市的气候变量和死亡率的每日数据。在这些城市中使用了一致的热浪定义。拟合了广义加性Poisson回归模型,以评估调整混杂因素后热浪对死亡率的影响。结果:在三个城市的几乎所有热浪中,总死亡率大多在同一天(滞后0)或一天滞后(滞后1)增加。使用夏季连续两天或以上连续两天的平均温度的95%作为不同城市的一致热浪定义(HWD),布里斯班,墨尔本和悉尼的滞后1时总死亡率的相对风险为1.13(95%置信度间隔(CI:1.08 -1.19),1.10(95%CI:1.06 -1.14)和1.06(95%CI:1.01 -1.10)。使用更严格的HWD,即两个或多个平均温度的99%在夏季连续两天,布里斯班和墨尔本在0-2天的滞后时的总死亡率的相对风险分别为1.40(95%CI:1.29 -1.51)和1.47(95%CI:1.36-1.59),结论:在澳大利亚三个主要城市的热浪期间,死亡率尤其是女性尤其是老年人更容易受到热浪的影响,但死亡率持续且显着增加,但热浪的影响随年龄,性别的不同而变化,HWD和地理区域。

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