An approach for forewarning forest fires in Shivalik forest tracts of Uttarakhand by application of fire trends and Keetch Byram Drought Index

摘要

Limited fore-knowledge of the impending ignition potential is one of the main causes of not-so-effective forest-fire management in India. The present study is an approach to link forest fire trends and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) for assessing forest fire forewarning. Fire trends were analyzed based on forest fire incidents detected by MODIS remotely-sensed data in the Shivalik forest tracts of Uttarakhand State of India over a period of 16 years to identify the vulnerable window of most-prone weeks. The study further uses KBDI to calculate the drought build-up in an area based on which the severity of impending forest fires can be predicted. This is one-of the first attempts for the inclusion of KBDI in understanding forest fire regime in Indian conditions. Based on the weekly-trends obtained from forest fire points during 2001-2016 affirm the most vulnerable time period for the occurrence of forest fire in the study region is from week 14 to week 22. The performance of KBDI proved to be a valid parameter in forecasting the severity of forest fire as its pattern over three years of study period (2014-2016) showed the same dynamics. The minimum value of KBDI i.e. the 'dip' value is significant for its use as a predictor to the severity of the fire season in the ensuing summer a full 10 weeks in advance. The findings of the present study pave the path for identifying the high-risk areas and severity of possible fires in the following fire season by correlating remote sensing and GIS techniques with Fire trends, peak period and Keetch Byram Drought Index. This study has a potential for adoption in countries like India for modern forest fire preparedness and management in a cost-effective manner.