Research on economic remaining life of power transformers based on the lifetime data

摘要

Quantitative prediction of the economic life of electrical equipment can provide the basis for network planning and construction. It is also a problem that is not yet solved. This paper provides the definition of the economic life of the power transformer, classifies and extracts the whole lifetime data of power transformers, and constructs the calculation flow path of transformer's economic life, using the Proportional Hazards Model with no distribution and Monte Carlo simulation to get the key parameters (failure rate and probability distribution of downtime duration). Then, combined with economic factors, the paper accesses to annual maintenance costs, annual interruption costs and annual operating costs of the power transformer, and finally the concrete prediction model of the economic life of power transformer is put forward.