Injury Severity Analysis of Secondary Incidents

摘要

Compared to normal incidents, secondary incidents are more likely to result in severe injuries and fatalities. However, limited efforts have been made to unveil the factors affecting the severity of secondary incidents. Incidents that occurred on the Interstate-5 in California within five years were collected. Detailed real-time traffic flow conditions, geometric characteristics, and weather conditions were obtained. First, a Random Forest-based (RF) feature selection approach was adopted. Then, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models were developed to investigate the effects of contributing factors. For comparison, RF and Ordered Logistic (OL) models were also built based on the same dataset. It was found that the SVM model has a high capacity for solving classification problems with limited data availability. Further, sensitivity analysis assessed the impacts of explanatory variables on the injury severity level. Explanatory variables, including occupancy, duration, frequency of lanes changes, and number of lanes, were found to contribute to injury severity of secondary incidents. Smoothing these traffic conditions after an incident occurs and responding fast in incident handling and clearance have the potential to reduce road trauma caused by secondary incidents.