ON THE QUALITY OF WEATHER FORECASTS AND ICE CHARTS OFFSHORE NORTH EAST GREENLAND

摘要

A research expedition took place with the Swedish Icebreaker Oden offshore North East Greenland within the period 15th to 25th of September 2012 (Oden Arctic Technology Research Cruise - OATRC12 - Lubbad et al., 2013). The occasion was used to provide data for evaluation of the quality of ice and weather forecasting services in the region. Information of forecasting skills is considered as extremely important for Arctic offshore operations. Comparisons between forecasted parameters such as winds, air temperatures and visibility allows for evaluation of forecasting reliability within the specific time period. Comparisons between issued ice charts and ground truth observations of ice concentrations forms a basis for evaluation of the quality of some of the ice charting services available for industry. Since the time duration of the expedition was limited, general conclusions on forecasting qualities cannot be made. The data indicate however that temperatures can be well forecasted up to 5 days, wind forecasting is more challenging and in particular with respect to directionality in mild conditions. Forecasting of visibility is complicated and not reliable. The quality of ice charts can be very good conditional proper sources are used when making the charts.