Private car and public transportation: dynamics of the modal share

摘要

A large proportion of private car modal share and the increasing trend of car use are the main challenges in realising a sustainable urban transportation system. A set of feedback loop models has been developed in this paper to make an attempt to present such challenges. The dynamics of the modal share between the private car and public transportation (PT) have been explained in terms of the model. The model mainly indicates that if the PT travel time is longer, PT availability is sparse, PT station accessibility is difficult, and if PT use does not indicate the social "class" then there will be a strong need to own a private car and it would consequently develop a need-based desire for a car. In such a situation, if the large mass of the population can afford and easily buy a car, then car use would get persistently high. An important issue for transportation policy design would then be how to pull the large mass of an increasing car-dependent population to encourage using the PT.