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What if We Don't? An Economic View of Seismic Upgrade

机译:如果我们不这样做怎么办?地震升级的经济学观点

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This paper provides an overview of the unique approach taken by a multi-discipline team consisting of Washington State Ferries (WSF) personnel, structural and geotechnical engineers, and economists to perform a risk assessment of a portion of WSF's aging timber trestle inventory. The intent of the assessment was to establish the cost-effectiveness of trestle replacement compared to refurbishment by quantifying risk for a range of seismic events and incorporating that risk into WSF's Asset Management Model. Failure scenarios developed using site-specific characteristics such as trestle condition and site seismicity were coupled with life cycle cost modeling techniques to assess the risks associated with doing nothing, refurbishing the existing trestles, or completely replacing the trestles at seven ferry terminals. This paper describes the approach developed to create an economic model and evaluate the efficacy of trestle upgrade and replacement options. A case study of the trestle at the Vashon Island terminal is included to demonstrate direct implementation of the approach and the results obtained.
机译:本文概述了由华盛顿州渡轮(WSF)人员,结构和岩土工程师以及经济学家组成的多学科团队采取的独特方法,该方法对WSF的部分老化的木栈桥库存进行了风险评估。评估的目的是通过量化一系列地震事件的风险并将该风险纳入WSF的资产管理模型中,来确定与翻新相比,栈桥更换的成本效益。使用特定于现场的特征(如栈桥条件和现场地震活动性)开发的故障场景与生命周期成本建模技术相结合,以评估无所事事,翻新现有栈桥或完全更换七个渡轮码头的栈桥的风险。本文介绍了用于创建经济模型并评估栈桥升级和更换选件的功效的方法。包括对Vashon Island码头栈桥的案例研究,以证明该方法的直接实施和所获得的结果。

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