An interval type-2 Fuzzy Logic based system for model generation and summarization of arbitrage opportunities in stock markets

摘要

Today stock market exchange and finance are centers of attention all over the world. In finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price misalignment between two or more stock markets where profit can be earned by striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the misalignment. If one strikes when misalignment has been observed, such deals are practically risk-free. However, when risk-free profit is around, everyone would compete to take advantage of it. Therefore, the question is whether arbitrage opportunities can be predicted; after all, misalignment does not happen instantaneously. Furthermore, financial operators do not like black boxes in forecasting. In this paper, we will present a type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) for the modeling and prediction of financial applications. The proposed system is capable of generating summarized models from pre-specified number of linguistic rules, which enables the user to understand the generated models for arbitrage opportunities prediction. The system is able to use this summarized model for the prediction of arbitrage opportunities in stock markets. We have performed several experiments based on the arbitrage data which is used in stock markets to spot ahead of time arbitrage opportunities. The proposed type-2 FLS has outperformed the Evolving Decision Rule (EDR) procedure (which is based on Genetic Programming (GP) and decision trees). Like GP, the type-2 FLS is capable of providing a white box model which could be easily understood and analyzed by the lay user.