The navigation environment affects the safety of navigation directly, since the water storage level ascended to 175 meters, the navigation environment of Three Gorges Reservoir area displayed new traits. Risk factors of Three Gorges Reservoir area were summarized. The application of cross-impact analysis model and the optimum fitting model, which were mostly based on the scenario analysis method led to the predictions about Three Gorges Reservoir area environment evolution and their happening probabilities. The final scenario schemes, which were predicted by scenario analysis method, can provide theoretical reference for decision makers to optimize the navigation environment and also to formulate scientific decision.
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