Establishment of Navigation Environment Safety Index of Changjiang River Based on Bayesian Network with GeNIe

摘要

The navigation environment is the foundation of shipping, and it is also the key influence factor in shipping safety. This paper takes the Changjiang River as an example, and through the statistics of its shipping accidents and dangerous case data, explores the contribution of navigation environment elements to accidents based on the Bayesian network. Finally, a navigation environment safety index system is established which can dynamically represent the navigation environment safety state trend with the exponential form as its continuity. The release and forecast of the navigation environment safety index is beneficial for enterprises, government departments, and industry authorities related to shipping to take charge of the navigation environment security situation and trend. It also has an important practical significance to improve the Changjiang River navigation safety management level.