Oil Policy Regret Analysis With System Dynamics Models

摘要

A simple system dynamics model was used to explore the potential benefits of using regret analysis to develop sensible government energy policies. Regret analysis looks at the relative impact of unexpected futures to design policies that reduce the risk of losses rather than trying to optimize benefits. It is very useful when it is impossible to assess or agree on the probabilities of future events and, especially, those events that can have a large impact on the system behavior.