Predicting the potential distribution of bamboo with species distribution models

摘要

Using history climate data and two representative climate change scenarios, we predicted the potential distribution of bamboo in China from 1961 to 2099 based on specie distribution models. Through evaluating the impact of presence-only, true-absence and pseudo-absence data on SVM models accuracy on the potential distribution of bamboo during 1981–2000, we found that the two-class SVM using presence and pseudo-absence data showed the finest performance in forecasting potential distribution of bamboo. The prediction results of spatial pattern and inter-annual variation of potential distribution of bamboo under history and future climate showed that, the potential distribution of bamboo increased by 91500 km² from 1961 to 2000. In climate change scenario B1, the potential distribution area increased 2433 km² per year. In A2 scenario, the annual increment of potential distribution area was 13825 km². Furthermore, the potential distribution of bamboo showed a northward migration obviously in both history climate and future scenarios.