An Urban Rail Transit Hazard Evaluation Methodology Based on Grey System Theory

摘要

Identification and evaluation of urban rail transit operating hazard can prevent accidents,and minimize damages caused by the accidents.In the process of urban rail transit operations,various factors may interact with each other that they function with.After analyzing the security factors of urban rail transit,the urban rail transit hazards are identified.According to the characteristics of urban rail transit systems,three hazard factors such as the potential risk,the existence conditions and trigger factors are chosen as the evaluation indicators.The approach of Grey Correlation Analysis is introduced and used for analyzing and determining the extent of the influences among the factors in a system and the degree of correlation among these factors.The grey incidence method is used for evaluating the hazards of urban rail transit dynamic operating systems and conducting quantitative analysis of risks in the operation process.By studying the actual operating situation of Tianjin metro,the risk points and the hazards of correlation degree are identified in this paper; and the relative high risk hazards are obtained.The calculated results of hazards show consistency between the model and the real situation and feasibility of the method.This research provides a new way to identify and evaluate the hazard of urban rail transit.