Forecasting Transportation Network Evolution and Performance under Existing and Alternative Transportation Planning Processes

摘要

This paper develops a quantitative model with agent-based simulation techniques, and forecasts future transportation networks and their performance under both existing and alternative transportation planning processes. The existing planning process, based on in-depth interviews with state, metropolitan, and local transportation agencies in the Washington DC-Baltimore Region that have influence on transportation investment decisions, is modeled with rule-based and expert systems methods. The effectiveness of the current transportation investment decision-making processes and policies is then compared with that under alternative planning processes characterized by different distributions of power (i.e. who controls the investment resources) among state, metropolitan, and local agencies. Results on a test network show that if all agencies follow their current decision-making rules, either a more centralized planning process wherein the state DOT controls all resources or a more decentralized planning process wherein local agencies make all investment decisions would outperform the existing planning process wherein both state and local agencies have their own resources and engage in (often political) investment negotiations. The modeling system could be applied to improve transportation investment decision-making in other regions and countries.