Traffic Accident Mechanism Analysis Based on Bayesian Network A Case Study on Jiaxing Segment of Shanghai-Hangzhou Freeway

摘要

This paper firstly uses Matlab to identify the black-spot on Jiaxing segment of Shanghai-Hangzhou Freeway. This identification is based on the principles of cumulative frequency method. Afterwards adaptability of using Bayesian network in accident analysis is argued and fundamental knowledge of it is introduced. Finally, software Netica is employed to establish the topological structure of Bayesian network and sensitivity analysis and accident diagnosis are done with the help of the software as well as the network model. Thus the mechanism of accidents is analyzed.