PV MARKET POTENTIAL IN THE TERAWATT SCALE: FUEL-PARITY IN PV POWER PLANT BUSINESS, GRID-PARITY FOR END-USER PV APPLICATIONS AND OFF-GRID PV IN RURAL

摘要

The photovoltaic (PV) energy technology has the potential to contribute to the global energy supply on a large scale. This potential can only be realised if sustainable and highly competitive PV economics are achieved. An integrated economic PV market potential assessment is presented being based on grid-parity and fuel-parity analyses for the on-grid markets and an amortization analysis for rural off-grid PV markets. These analyses are mainly driven by cost projections based on the experience curve approach and growth rates for PV systems and electricity and fossil fuel prices for the currently used power supply. The total economic PV market potential is derived to about 2,800 GW to 4,300 GW by the year 2020. The cumulated installed PV capacity in the year 2020 is estimated to be between 600 GW up to 1,600 GW, depending on scenario assumptions. Even the low range of the expected total installed PV capacity is found to be more than three to five times higher than scenario assumptions of some leading organizations like e.g. IEA. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology being complementary to wind power and both technologies might become the backbone of the global energy supply in the coming few decades.