Three-industry-structure analysis based on the VAR and VEC models: Empirical study of economic data of Hangzhou from 1978 to 2008

摘要

Through literature reviews, it points out the defect and the limitation of traditional statistic methodes used in the past. Considering these faults and characteristic of econometrical problems, it puts forth the application of conbination of vector auto regression (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) to the analysis of three industries, and explains its advantages in the econometrical analysis, and briefly introduces its theory, then shows its modeling steps and programming in detail through the exemplary analysis of three industries data of Hangzhou city from 1978 to 2008, it comes to conclusion that the analysis result is almost perfectly in accord with its factual state of economic development, so it reflects the method is constructive in the analysis of economy of a country or region and can be used in the practice.