Securities Analysts' Behavior and IPO Initial Return Rate in China Based on Quantile Regression

摘要

This article attempts to study IPO initial return rate from the perspective of securities analysts' behavior. The report data released by analysts before listing day during listing year of A-share market IPO companies (from 2004 to 2006) are selected. After studying the characteristics of prediction error and dispersion of opinion, OLS, WLS and Quantile Regression are used to sub-examine the effect of the analysts' behavior on IPO initial return rate. The results show that analysts' earnings forecasts for each period tends to be optimistic in general, long-term predictive ability is poor, and the prediction opinions are rather consistent, There is a positive relationship between forecast times and initial return rate, while a negative relationship among the number of following, the average of the forecast period, energy dispersal degree. Therefore, analysts should be more cautious and responsible to predict and provide investors with better service.