No way out? - Analysing policy options to alleviate or derail Success-to-the-Successful in the energy system

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to briefly discuss the presence of the archetype "Success-to-the-Successful" in the energy system and to analyse policy options in the presence of this archetype in the energy system. More precisely, the paper aims at finding conditions under which the path dependent allocation of investments directed to the conventional energy-technology sector can be alleviated, in order to encourage investments in alternative energies and technologies. The discussion draws on a stylized and highly aggregated model of the energy system, which is based on system dynamics. Sensitivity analyses are used as the major diagnostic tool to identify options to break away from the current dominant path of energy production and use, and the investments made in it. The value of this paper lies in the clear articulation of a complex and fuzzy topic, with the help of modelling and simulation. Implications for research comprise a further elaboration of the simulation studies within the energy field.