Spatially Explicit Epidemiological Simulation System of Influenza A (H1N1) in China

摘要

The outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) around the world has caused significant economic loss and human death. It is a urgent challenge to improve our response to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks, and avoid its epidemic. Computer simulation is a pragmatic and effective methodology for analyses of influenza A (H1N1). A spatially explicit epidemiological simulation system is proposed to study the outbreak and transmission of influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China. In this system, a SEIR epidemic model is developed, and traffic between provinces and four kinds of prevention and control measures are considered. Additionally, Geographic Information System (GIS) tool is incorporated in the system to provide friendly interface for model development, epidemic simulation, and temporal-spatial analysis. Preliminary experimental results have shown the effectiveness of the system.