STUDY ON SIMULATING SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION IN SONGLIAO BASIN

摘要

Human activities have enormous influence on water cycle and the distribution of population plays an important part in both quantity and quality of water resource evolution. In the hydrologic and water quality model, population distribution is an important variable. As population has problems of liquidity, difficulties in basic data collection and spatial relationship's determination, simulation results have great uncertainty. In consideration of the relationship between land use and the population distribution, this article carrys on the population distribution through Sherratt model and Clark model. According to the population statistics of Songliao Basin from 1995 to 2006, this paper calculates population distribution for 72795 calculation units. It is proved that the calculating results match the observed data exactly and it also shows the model's application value in Songliao Basin. Since the Songhua River was accidently polluted in 2005, it appears a series of drinking water crisis and even causes international disputes. So it is very urgent to carry out water resource assessment. As the basic information of simulating point source and non-point source, population spatial distribution is an important index and plays an irreplaceable role. Clark had put forward the exponential decay model of population distribution density in 1951. Sherratt had figured the model of urban population density spatial decay as guassian form in 1960. Through the general urban dynamic system, Chen had constructed the differential equation which combined Clark's with Shemtt's model and established a general equation. This paper is intended to improve the general model. Meanwhile use the information of land utilization, slope and so on to make population spatially distributed on the Songliao Basin more correctly. It not only offers support for assignments for water resource assessment in future, but also a technological guideline for drawing up policy. It is extremely vital significance.