Short-term forecasting in road evacuation: calibration of a travel time function

摘要

The paper presents a framework to define a function for estimating within-day variations of travel time on a network. The framework integrates two main components: a within-day traffic assignment model, that simulates the interaction between travel demand flows and the road transport network, and a dynamic vehicle routing model that provides optimal routes of emergency vehicles. The variable linking the two models is the short-term forecasted travel time, making it possible to capture anticipatory information on traffic dynamics on the network in evacuation conditions.