Empirical Analysis on RMB Exchange Rate Volatility and Import and Export Commodities Trading in China

摘要

This paper makes an empirical analysis on exchange rate and import and export trading in China by using Granger causality testing, co integration test and vector error correction model. It is seen from the result that floating exchange rate system adopted by RMB exchange rate from January of 200S to December of 2007. RMB appreciation is result in the increasing of import, but it cannot weaken export. The increasing of export trading in China is forced by many non exchange rate factors, thus it is limited to resolve trade imbalance by means of exchange rate adjustment When short term fluctuation is deviated from long term equilibrium, balance state is pulled back from imbalance state by means of greater adjustment.