Vector Autoregression Model Application on Forecasting China Energy Demand Up To Year 2020

摘要

With the fast economic development, energy demand is increasing year after year. In the future, how to forecast the energy demand scientifically has the important meaning to the assurance of economic sustainable development and the setting up of well-off and harmonious society. The VAR model sets up the model based on the data statistic character and as each endogenous variable is the function of lag value of all endogenous variables. It is one of the models that are easily handled to the analysis and forecast dealing with several correlate economic indexes. It is used to forecast the correlate time series system. The energy demand is composed by the wastage of oil, coal and natural gas, they have the near relation. So, this text applies the VAR model to forecast the wastage of oil, coal, natural gas and total energy demand in the future, it can provide the instruction for the energy development stratagem.