A GREY-MARKOV-BASED MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE EXPORT VOLUME OF AQUATIC PRODUCTS IN CHINA

摘要

China is the world's largest exporter of aquatic products since 2002. Average export volume has increased 17 percent and is now around $5490 million at 2003. Given the significance of this industry, this article presents a Grey-Markov model to predict the export volume of aquatic products sampled between 1990 and 2003. It shows that the export value of aquatic products can be split up into three stages. The predicted values of the export value of aquatic products in 2004 and 2005 will be $6230 and 7070 millions, respectively. And they will be the third stage.