A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL OF THE DEVELOPMENT CYCLE FOR FUTURE MOBILITY VEHICLES

摘要

In the development of future air vehicles, a large number of inter-disciplinary areas comeinto play. An overall transportation framework is introduced and key agents to a mobility valuenetwork are identified. A simulation of the overall system is needed, but the present paper focuseson the aspect of product development for a future vehicle manufacturer. A System Dynamicsmodel is developed to investigate the importance of product development lead time and designfailure rate. The effect of uncertainty is explored through Monte Carlo simulation. The caseresults show the manufacturer’s net profit to be more sensitive to design and certification leadtime, as compared to a lower development failure rate. In this scenario, a policy that rewards theearly completion of work more than higher design success rate would be effective for the manufacturer.This study represents the initial step towards modeling the dynamics within a system-ofsystemsmobility environment.