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Automatic History Matching in a Bayesian Framework, Example Applications

机译:贝叶斯框架中的自动历史匹配,示例应用

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The Bayesian framework allows one to integrate produc-tion data and static data into a posteriori probability den-sity function for reservoir variables (model parameters).The problem of generating realizations of the reservoirvariables for the assessment of uncertainty in reservoir de-scription or predicted reservoir performance then becomesa problem of sampling this posteriori pdf to obtain a suiteof realizations. Generation of a realization by the ran-domized maximum likelihood method requires the mini-mization of an objective function that includes productiondata misˉt terms and a model misˉt term that arises fromstatic data. Minimization of this objective function withan optimization algorithm is equivalent to the automatichistory matching of production data with a prior modelconstructed from static data providing regularization. Be-cause of the computational cost of computing sensitivitycoe±cients and the need to solve matrix problems involv-ing the covariance matrix for the prior model, this ap-proach has not been applied to problems where the numberof data and number of reservoir model parameters are bothlarge and the forward problem is solved by a conventionalˉnite di?erence simulator.In this work, we illustrate that computational e±-ciency problems can be overcome by using a scaled limitedmemory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (LBFGS) al-gorithm to minimize the objective function, and using ap-proximate computational stencils to approximate the mul-tiplication of a vector by the prior covariance matrix orits inverse. Implementation of the limited memory BFGSmethod requires only the gradient of the objective func-tion which can be obtained from a single solution of theadjoint problem; individual sensitivity coe±cients are notneeded. We apply the overall process to two examples.The ˉrst is a true ˉeld example in which a realization oflog-permeabilities at 26,019 grid blocks is generated by theautomatic history matching of pressure data and the sec-ond is a pseudo-ˉeld example that provides a very roughapproximation to a North Sea reservoir in which a realiza-tion of log-permeabilities at 9750 gridblocks is computedby the automatic history matching of GOR and pressuredata.
机译:贝叶斯框架允许人们集成生产 将数据和静态数据转换为后验概率密度 sity函数用于储层变量(模型参数)。 生成水库实现的问题 评估储层不确定性的变量 描述或预测的储层性能将变为 采样此后验pdf以获取套件的问题 的实现。跑者生成的实现- 归一化最大似然法要求最小 包括生产的目标函数的细化 数据错误术语和模型错误术语是由于 静态数据。通过以下方式最小化此目标函数 优化算法等效于自动算法 生产数据与先前模型的历史匹配 由提供正则化的静态数据构造而成。是- 计算灵敏度的计算成本的原因 系数和解决涉及矩阵问题的需求- 在先验模型的协方差矩阵上 的方法还没有应用到问题所在的数量 的数据和储层模型参数的数量都是 大型且向前的问题通过常规解决 有限差异模拟器。 在这项工作中,我们说明了计算e±- 可以通过使用缩放限制来解决科学问题 记忆Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno(LBFGS)al- gorithm以最小化目标函数,并使用近似的计算模板来近似多个 通过先前的协方差矩阵或 它的逆。有限内存BFGS的实现 该方法只需要目标函数的梯度 可以从单一解决方案获得 伴随问题个人敏感性系数不是 需要。我们将整个过程应用于两个示例。 “第一个”是一个真实的例子,其中实现了 对数渗透率为26,019个网格块是由 压力数据和秒的自动历史匹配 ond是一个伪字段示例,提供了非常粗略的 近似于北海水库,其中实现了 计算了9750个网格块的对数渗透率 通过GOR和压力的自动历史匹配 数据。

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