MODELING REGIONAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCY TO EARTHQUAKES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF LIFELINE DISRUPTIONS

摘要

Recent studies indicate that utility lifeline supply disruptions can have significant impacts on regional economic activity in the aftermath of an earthquake or other natural disaster. Research on this subject has until now been dominated by the application of input-output models, linear programming models. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis would appear to a superior alternative, since it is comprehensive, non-linear, based on individual oehavior in response to market prices, and explicitly incorporates constraints. The methodology developed in this paper provides an alternative to the usual non-survey "adaptation" approach in CGE models. It utilizes primary data on direct economic losses to recalibrate sectoral production functions. This approach also enables us to distinguish between direct and indirect losses. We apply our model to estimating the regional economic impacts of a water system supply disruption in the Portland (Oregon) Metropolitan Area.