Exploring the Dynamics of Mobile Internet Service Market in Korea

摘要

Perhaps, the mobile Internet services would be one of the typical emerging marketsdrawing tremendous attention from not only business professionals but also policymakers.In recent years many research institutes reported their predictions on thegrowth of the mobile Internet services, announcing that the market would showexplosive growth and replace the wired Internet service market rapidly. Unfortunately,however, the reality we are facing at present is quite different from their expectations.The realized share of the mobile services in Korea last year has turned out remainingonly about one percent of the total network service market. What are the reasons for thegap between the prospects and the realities?Starting from this question, this paper attempts some reasoning about why traditionalnumber-crunching methods are no longer appropriate for the forecast of newlyemerging markets and explores their generic pitfalls. As an alternative by introducingsystems thinking from the standpoints of structural perspective, this paper also presentsexamples of system dynamics model at meta level for the mobile Internet service marketin Korea, followed by its rationale as a new tool for the forecast and the policy-makingsupport.