The Dynamic Spatial Simulation Modelling of the Effects of Land Use Change on Avian Species

摘要

A spatial dynamic simulation model for two bird species was constructed. It is developedas a part of a greater project being carried out in University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The project LEAM is about analysing urban sprawl in the United States anddeveloping policies to prevent it. Under LEAM project, a comprehensive urbandevelopment model of Kane County in the state of Illinois was constructed. The modelpresented in this paper is an integral part of the LEAM model and serves as a means toevaluate the effects of urban sprawl on two bird species selected as indicators for theirecosystems: Eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna) for the grassland, and ovenbird(Seiurus aurocapillus) for forest ecosystems. The model is capable of running for bothspecies with the help of a ‘switch’ variable. The model was integrated with a hypotheticalland use map through a spatial analysis software, Spatial Modelling Environment (SME)and tested for behavioural validity. Non-spatial results were used for verification andcalibration; spatial results revealed the extent of effects of urban sprawl on avian speciesin particular and wildlife in general. Lack of sufficient data was a significant problemduring the study and it is believed that the model could be improved with the availabilityof more data on population dynamics and habitat requirements of grassland and forestbird species. The spatial modelling studies are still novel approaches and their successpartly depends on availability of relevant and sufficient data. There is still much toimprove in this field and it is realistic to expect great contributions to the scientific andpractical theory from spatial dynamic modelling in the future.