Modeling the Dynamic Complexity of the Energy Policymaking Process

摘要

This paper presents a System Dynamics approach to modeling how electric energy policyis created and modified in democratic nations. The selection of future generation capacitydepends upon the comparative economics between technologies. These economics are subject tovariation as societal concerns about such issues as supply reliability, safety, and environmentaleffects change.The model represents the issues that create concern and the various segments of societythat articulate the concerns. The model incorporates a representation of how the politicalstructure within the United States responds to concerns in terms of policy outputs that affectenergy economics. Decisions regarding capacity additions are based upon the most profitablechoice available to the utility at the moment of decision. Demand is treated as an exogenousvariable. Energy production to meet the demand produces byproducts and consequences that inturn feedback to the societal sector concerns.