An Application of System Dynamics Modeling to The Question of a Log Export Ban for Indonesia with Comments on Illegal Logging

摘要

System dynamics modeling allows us to examine various scenarios within acomplex system. By using this approach we not only learn about the responseof the system to test inputs which could never be tested in the real world, butwe also learn to question our assumptions about the system itself. This leads toa better understand of its workings.This paper presents a preliminary system dynamics investigation into thepotential effects of a log export ban on the Indonesian forest sector. As apreliminary model its primary purpose is to help us better visualize potentialeffects of a log export ban rather than to predict, in detail, actual outcomes.The model provides relatively simplistic overviews of the wood processingsector, demand – price feed back loops, forest standing stock and logavailability, capacity of the harvest sector, as well as export demand, price andlog exports. In spite of its apparent simplicity the model examines importantfeedbacks that must be understood if the effects of a log ban are to be properlyexamined.