Regional Hazard Damage Estimation Using System Reliability

摘要

The aggregate damage and loss to a portfolio of buildings is often of interest to parties such as insurance companies, developers, political organizations and community planners. There is an additional level of complexity involved with assessing risk on a regional basis because of the correlation present between the structural components within a region. This research proposes a new reliability-based approach to quantify seismic risk for a portfolio of buildings, while incorporating this correlation. The proposed framework characterizes a suite of structures as a system composed of individual building sites and the correlation that exists between them. In the proposed method, an empirically modified First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to evaluate damage to various building combinations as well as their influence on overall system damage. Using probability set theory concepts, the damage to each building combination is combined to compute system damage to the portfolio.