LONG-TERM PROSPECTS OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND

摘要

One of the activities of the International Gas Union (IGU) has been to investigate the long term prospects of natural gas supply and demand. In its latest report, the demand of natural gas is estimated to reach 3190 BCM (billion cubic meter) or 2735 BCM in 2010 depending on different assumptions for the survey. These figures are considerably larger than the current demand of 2120 BCM in 1995. Meanwhile, the world energy demand of 338 EJ in 1995 will be almost doubled to reach 680 EJ in 2030 as a result of the growth in economy and population. It is the role of natural gas to contribute to meet the future energy demand with its environmentally friendly nature and improved utilization technologies. In fact, there are abundant proven natural gas reserves of 146 696 BCM. The current lifetime is 68 years, and with the vast additional reserves this figure becomes 187 years. The supply potential, on the other hand, is dependent on various issues, but the IGU estimates that there will be sufficient supply to meet the large demand of natural gas through 2030. However, technological development and international cooperation will be the key factors for the natural gas to further contribute to the welfare of mankind.