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Impact of ENSO Cycles on the Summer Climate Anomalies in East Asia and the Outlook of the SST Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific in 2002

机译:ENSO周期对东亚夏季气候异常的影响以及2002年热带太平洋海温异常的前景

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In this paper, the observed data are used to analyze the impact of ENSO events on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia, especially in the summers of 1997 and 1998. The results show that ENSO event has a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley. However, the impact on the summer monsoon rainfall is different in the different stage of ENSO cycle. In the developing stage of ENSO event, hot and drought may be caused in North China, and summer rainfall may be above normal in the Huaihe River Valley. On the contrary, in the decaying stage of ENSO event, severe flood may be caused in the Yangtze River valley, especially in the Dongting Lake and the Boyang Lake valleys, as in the summer of 1998. In this case summer rainfall may be below normal in the Huaihe River valley. Moreover, the extra-seasonal outlook of the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific is made by using the statistical method and the IAP-TPCGCM, respectively. The result shows: although it is possible that the positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific may be intensified from the spring of 2002, the occurrence possibility of a new El Nino event is not large before the summer of 2002. This may is due to the weak westerly anomalies still stay over the west of the tropical western Pacific and cannot quickly propagate eastward to the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.
机译:本文利用观测数据分析了ENSO事件对东亚夏季气候异常的影响,特别是1997年和1998年夏季。结果表明,ENSO事件对东亚夏季气候异常有重大影响。东亚,尤其是长江流域。然而,在ENSO循环的不同阶段,对夏季风的影响是不同的。在ENSO事件的发展阶段,华北地区可能引起高温和干旱,淮河流域的夏季降雨量可能高于正常水平。相反,在ENSO事件的衰减阶段,可能会像1998年夏季那样在长江流域,特别是在洞庭湖和博阳湖流域造成严重的洪灾。在这种情况下,夏季降雨量可能低于正常水平。在淮河流域。此外,分别使用统计方法和IAP-TPCGCM预测了赤道太平洋海表温度异常的季节外前景。结果表明:尽管从2002年春季开始赤道太平洋的海表温度正异常可能会加剧,但2002年夏季之前发生新的厄尔尼诺现象的可能性并不大。弱的西风异常仍然停留在热带西太平洋的西部,无法迅速向东传播到赤道中部和东太平洋。

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