A GIS-based method for predicting the location,magnitude and occurrence time of landslides using a three-dimensional deterministic model

摘要

To predict the location,magnitude and occurrence time of landslides that occur in wide moun-tainous area,a new GIS-based three-dimensional method is proposed. A GIS raster-based 3D slope stabilityanalysis model is delivered to calculate the 3D safety factor in regional landslide assessment. In order to locatethe potential failures,a Monte Carlo technique is used by means of minimizing the 3D safety factor through aniterative procedure,based on a simulation of ellipsoid for the 3D shape of slip surfaces. A new GIS-based modelis developed by coupling a dynamic rainfall-infiltration model with the GIS-based 3D model to quantify thevarying safety factors during rainfall infiltration. All proposed methods are applied by developing a GIS-basedcomprehensive system. The effectiveness of the method and the practicality of the developed system are verifiedby a practical application for landslide-prone area in Japan.