Five-Year Lung Cancer Mortality Risk Analysis and Topography in Xuan Wei: A Spatio-Temporal Correlation Analysis

摘要

Background: In Xuan Wei, the lung cancer mortality rate is five times higher than the country average, and continues to increase despite interventions to reduce indoor coal burning air pollution. This study aims to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of lung cancer in Xuan Wei from 2011 to 2015. Methods: The pooled data of lung cancer registries for all the towns in Xuan Wei was first collected. The spatial distributions of local relative production volumes and mine deposits were acquired. The spatial autocorrelation was explored by spatio-temporal GIS approach. Four sets of spatial analysis and spatial statistics were applied: 1) hotspot analysis and 3D-geographical visualization, 2) a spatially weighted sum, 3) spatial interrelation between coal mines and lung cancer mortality, and 4) a geographically weighted regression model. Results: Females exhibited higher lung cancer mortality than males, with an increasing trend observed for both sexes over time. The incidence rate in Laibin Town was the highest in Xuan Wei for each year. Higher mortality was found in counties with coal industries, especially for those over 30+ years old. The village-level mortality showed clustered trends.The hotspot analysis and 3D-geographical visualization demonstrated increasingly concentrated patterns around Laibin, Shuanglong, and Longchang. The mapped health risks showed the geographical pattern of potential lung cancer health risks from the coal mine, and spatio-temporal variations were found in the five-year period for both sexes. Conclusions: Lung cancer mortality has increased continuously since the third mortality survey in Xuan Wei. Geographically, the locations for different kinds of mines have interrelation with the lung cancer mortality in Xuan Wei. Specific exploration targeted at the local environmental health related to coal burning indoor air pollution is warranted.