A Method for the Prediction of Seismic Disaster to City's Common Buildings Based on General Survey Data and Ann Model

摘要

Earthquake is one visitation of providence which threatens people's safety. Once earthquakes happen in a city there will be great losses. How to find a city's weak link so as to provide correlative measure to mitigate the losses is necessary. The prediction of seismic disaster is one basic work of that. In this paper, a method for predicting a city's buildings' seismic disaster is presented. The general survey data of buildings was used as factors affecting buildings' seismic disaster and an artificial neural network was used as a tool to calculate the seismic disaster. An artificial neural network model was made because this type of model has an ability to simulate nonlinear consequences. Typical destroyed buildings were collected as samples from many previous earthquakes. After training the model using the collected data a convergent model was acquired. A conclusion was drawn that the model was sufficient for predicting buildings' seismic disaster after using it to predict the seismic disaster of a group of new buildings.