Climate change and the distribution of vector borne diseases with special reference to african horse sickness virus

摘要

In the context of climate change, those components of climate that are likely to have major effects upon distribution, seasonal incidence and prevalence of vector borne diseases are described. On the basis of a predicted, mean temperature increase of the order of 1 to 3.5 deg C, examples are given of the sort of changes that are to be expected by using a range of internationally important human and animal pathogens. Recent dramatic alterations in the epidemiology of the OIE List "A" disease, African horse sickness, are drawn upon to put forward the proposition that climate change may already be having a major effect upon some vector borne diseases.