PML Probabilistic Assessment for Fire Explosion Risk in Oil Industry

摘要

The present paper outlines how to assess the probability of PML (Probable Maximum Loss) caused by a fire or explosion in the oil industry. PML is assessed by use of both loss statistics and an ETA system developed by authors. In the study, at first, both types of statistics on big loss like PML and general loss are collected, and the probability of PML caused by a fire or explosion is estimated based on the global basis of the industry. Next, a model for probabilistic assessment of PML is developed using the ETA system, putting oil or gas leakage to an initial event. Successive events are detection of leakage, control of leakage and a breakout of fire or explosion. The probabilistic model makes it possible to estimate the fire or explosion risk for each fire or explosion scenario produced in an oil processing plant using failure rates regarding to the events given in the ETA system. Analyses of those fire and explosion scenarios using the proposed approach demonstrate that it presents consistent results with empirical facts. Thus, it is concluded that the system is feasible for the PML probabilistic assessment in the oil industry.