Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Safeguards Logic Trees

摘要

In this paper some of the results of a complete qualitative and quantitative analysis of the safeguards logic tree for Pu acquisition have been presented. Within the limitation of the FT modeling approach, the analysis performed has shown the dominance of clandestine activities in terms of the proliferation success probability defined as the probability of having at least one undetected AP among all the ones attempted. It has to be noticed however that if an AP has a high non-detection probability, this doesn't necessarily imply that the AP is also easy to implement: time factors and technological barriers should be taken into account for a satisfying characterization of the APs. Such aspects will be the matter of further development, for which a good staring point could be the TOPS attributes study.