Sea level rise scenarios induced by climate change, and their consequences for the Estonian seacoast

摘要

Due to the low-lying land, the gently sloping coasts and the virtual absence of tides, the flooding generated both by local storm surges and the climatologically induced global sea level rise will increasingly affect the Estonian coastal zone. Both the static as well as the dynamic aspects of the sea level rise arc studied and their consequences are discussed. Recession of the shoreline due to different global sea level rise estimates is investigated, taking into account the isostatic land uplift of the Baltic Sea region. Meteorological forcing time series (NAO-indices, local wind and storminess data etc.) are analysed and the sea levels are dynamically modelled in the Estonian coastal sea using a 2D hydrodynarnic model with 1 km grid-step. Increased storminess, in addition to the sea level surge events, will favour the destruction of the shores and harbour facilities.