Formal Patterns of Scientific Reasoning I: A Rational Reconstruction of the Research Programmes of Contemporary Cosmology

摘要

In this paper we present some guidelines for a particular formalization of patterns of scientific research. We follow closely the methodology of scientific research programmes introduced by Lakatos in the 70s. The formal basis of this rational reconstruction is taken from the methods of defeasible and ampliative reasoning in AI. These are applied to the representation of the process of construction and comparison among different argumental supports for explanations or predictions. This allows a formal representation of the different drives of the programmes when confronted with either positive or negative evidence. To show the importance of a formalization of these patterns of reasoning we systematize the current discussion in cosmology between the proponents of the standard Big-Bang model and those of the inflationary model. This discussion has been enriched with recent observational evidence.