a study of Chinese rapid urbanization based on system dynamics model

摘要

Based on the analysis of urbanization mechanism, making use of the theory and method of system dynamic(SD), this paper builds up SD model in the stage of the rapid urbanization in China, simulates and forecasts the evolution of urbanization of China in the future 50 years. The error of this model is very small, which definitely proves it credible and in a certain extent reflects the rapid proceeding of analyzes the influences of urbanization in the different policies respectively.The research shows that: until the middle of 21st century, urbanization rate of China will reach over 60 percent, and urbanization will enter slow and stable developmental stage.