The Research of Risk Management of Real Estate Investment Funds Based on Bayesian Networks

摘要

The real estate market is ever changing because of a series of fundamental changes existing in the factors of uncertainty. The dynamic changes produced by affects of these uncertain factors have brought different forms of business risk for the operators in the property market. As a real estate investment fund investing mainly in equity investment, the operational process itself is a much more complex socio-economic activity include many factors, however the main target of investment——real estate development is an industrial investment activity with huge capitals, long inherent cycle and poor capacity of funds liquidating, thereby these factors result in that real estate investment funds face with a wide variety of risks. We should unceasingly develop management tools suitable for the risk characteristics of the real estate investment fund in order to manage and control the risks of it well. In this article we will try to use the Bayesian networks to manage and control the real estate investment fund based on its characteristics of being quantified difficultly. We will build a more comprehensive indicator system of the real estate investment fund risk management and design the various nodes and Bayesian models based on the indicator system, thus draw the reference value of real estate investment fund risks by the final calculation in order to help managers to achieve policy objectives.