FURTHER RESEARCH ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY AND INVESTMENT

摘要

The emphasis of this study lies in revealing the relationship between uncertainty and investment probability through real option model, which involved investment critical trigger and project earning. Based on the experiment that illustrated a influence of project earning volatility on investment probability by using software Matlab, the authors conclude that this notion is not always correct. In fact an increasing in uncertainty should have an inhibiting effect on investment. This paper also show that in certain situation, an increasing in uncertainty actually increases the investment probability, so should have a positive impact on investment.