Predicting Structural Change in EnvironmentalSystems: a Complement to Model-based Forecasting

摘要

Simulation models are commonly employed for predicting both the impacts ofrnnatural stressors and the outcomes of anthropogenic actions on the environment. Such modelbasedrnforecasting depicts a forward approach to environmental systems analysis. This paperrnpresents a complementary backward approach that uses prescribed future scenarios to identifyrnthe dominant components of the modeled system. In particular, two Monte Carlo methods forrnuncertainty analysis – namely, Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) and Tree-StructuredrnDensity Estimation (TSDE) – are applied in detecting structural change between observed pastrnand speculated future ecological behavior in a small southeastern US Piedmont reservoir (LakernOglethorpe, GA). Results indicate that sediment-water-nutrient interactions are key elements ofrnstructural change that distinguish between the past and future scenarios analyzed. Generalrnimplications for predicting structural change in environmental systems are discussed.