Applying Nonlinear, Multi-loop Simulation to Effects Based Operations

摘要

Effects-Based Operations (EBO) consider an adversary nation as a system, which can be decomposed into (1) National Elements of Value (NEVs), (2) target systems, and (3) target sets. This approach to studying EBO is founded on the insight that the effects of an aerospace campaign, both physical and behavioral, can be understood as the dynamic behaviors of a complex system. This study proposes addressing the EBO problem domain in terms of a nonlinear, multi- feedback loop model, which can be analyzed using commercial system dynamics modeling and simulation tools. This study aims to advance targeting policy in three sections covering (1) overview of concepts, (2) next steps, and (3) risks and alternatives.